Marty Gordon
NRVsports@mainstreetnewspapers.com
A Radford University political science professor says the Ninth Congressional District will face minimal changes in the proposed state redistricting plan.
But area residents might disagree as it moves all of Blacksburg, Radford and part of Christiansburg and Montgomery County to the Sixth District. The new redistricting would give Democrats a proposed 10-to-1 advantage in voting areas with the Ninth being the remaining Republican one.
The Ninth district would gain all of Bath, Allegheny, Highland and Rockbridge counties as well as the City of Covington and also gains parts of Augusta County and most of Botetourt County.
Radford University’s Chapman Rackway believes no one’s looking at this through a lens of equity or fairness, and everyone’s looking for, ‘what can we advantage ourselves the most with in 2026,’ especially when it comes to Republican and Democratic leverage.
“The Ninth District has leaned heavily toward red for the past 12 years, and in many ways, Democrats have left it alone,” he said.
Roanoke would be divided into two separate congressional districts, using Interstate 81 as the primary dividing line. The Ninth would stretch from Lee County in the far southwest, east to Martinsville, and north to include southern Roanoke County, and is currently represented by Morgan Griffith, who was first elected in 2011.
In a lawsuit filed in Tazewell Circuit Court, Judge Jack Hurley Jr. ruled Democrats had sidestepped both state law and their own rules in a rush to redraw congressional districts.
The matter has now been appealed and sent to the Richard Circuit Court, creating a battle between two court jurisdictions.
Hurley said Democrats didn’t follow state law as they attempted to redraw congressional districts in time for the 2026 federal midterms. At the center of the argument is the Democrat’s timetable and did two votes on the matter be within the required period.
If the redistricting proceeds, a statewide vote will be held on April 21, putting the decision in the hands of voters and if approved would take effect for this November’s election. Thus, changing the way the Ninth is populated.
Griffith said he is running for reelection in the Ninth Congressional District and believes
the Supreme Court of Virginia will uphold all or significant portions of Judge Hurley’s opinion and stop the plan the Democrats in Richmond have proposed.
Under the proposed plan, the Democrats shift power away from rural Virginia in favor of Northern Virginia.
It’s the slicing of Montgomery County that has many people scratching their heads.
Republicans have about a 2-1 advantage in the Ninth District, so this would be the toughest district to try to swap.
Rackaway said depending on how the maps work, Democrats could eat into the Republican advantage in the Ninth, but most likely they’d have to take Democrats from this district and pack them into others (say, Ben Cline’s Sixth District). So not only will the Ninth stay Republican, it could become more so.
Overall, in the state, the change could be a big one, both in immediate terms (how it plays out in the 2026 midterms) and long-term. Currently, Virginia has six Democratic seats and five Republican seats in the U.S. House. Under the proposed map, that could change to 10 Democratic seats and one Republican seat, which would be the current Ninth district.
Rackaway said that’s a big shift, adding four more seats.
“California’s parallel redistricting could take that number to more than 10 additional Democratic seats in November. We’re talking a big, potentially long-term change, in the majority of Congressional seats,” he said.
Rackaway is the chair of the political science department at RU and teaches classes in state and local government, political campaign management, political parties and campaign finance.
He said Virginia is doing this now because the two main parties are trying to position themselves for an advantage in the 2026 midterm elections. A special referendum could be presented April 17 to Virginia voters to approve or disapprove, thus meaning the redistricting could be effective before November’s mid-term elections.
“Normally, all states do redistricting right after the census (the zero year of every decade) and then it takes emergencies like court orders to redistrict out of that cycle. But the U.S. Constitution doesn’t say anything about redistricting. Since things look pretty rough for Republicans in November, President Trump and his advisors are worried Republicans could lose majority control of the House,” Rackaway said.
“President Trump pushed some states (notably Texas) to redistrict so that there would be more safe Republican seats in the House of Representatives. Texas could have swapped out as many as five Democrats for Republicans. Since the Republicans have basically a one-seat majority in the House (218, to 214 Democrats with three vacancies) those five seats could have been the difference between them maintaining control of the House or losing it.”
Rackaway said since the move would have advantaged Republicans, Democratic-controlled states started looking into doing the same, notably California and Virginia. However, Texas’ redistricting efforts were blocked by a federal court. Virginia started this process before the courts intervened in the Texas case, but even so the Democratic majorities in both the House of Delegates and Senate are proceeding with sending a measure to the public for a vote.
“It’s safe to say that Virginia probably wouldn’t have done this if Texas hadn’t started it, but it looks like now the Democratic states are going to continue with their efforts to pack the House with more of their members,” he said.
All of this is looking at a big potentially long-term change, in the majority of Congressional seats.
But it could change again if Republicans were to gain control of the state legislature in 2027.
“You could conceivably see maps redrawn every two years to try to pack the U.S. House with partisan advantage. It’s an ugly precedent that has potentially huge negative consequences,” Rackaway said.
The plan is currently facing those legal challenges with opponents arguing the changes are designed to limit the voice of rural Virginians.
“Before there can be a vote, the Virginia Supreme Court has a say. A Tazewell County judge recently ruled that the proposed amendment to redraw the maps is unconstitutional, and it’s been appealed to the State Supreme Court,” Rackaway said.
Rackaway said it is basically a political game of chicken, seeing who blinks first.
“If Texas was proceeding with its redistricting plan, it would probably be a fairly easy sell for Virginia Democrats. Now, though, t’s a very different game. This referendum isn’t about playing fair as much as it is punishing one’s opponents. That’s much harder to sell to voters, though Democrats appear committed to this course of action so they’ll do everything they can to motivate Democrats to vote in favor,” the professor said.
Should the referendum pass, the maps become effective immediately, so they can fundamentally change the 2026 midterm elections.
The Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) was established in 1997 to provide Virginians with access to public documents related to the financial aspects of politics. Over the years, VPAP has expanded its services to include access to state and local government information, data visualizations, election night results and analysis, lobbyist registrations and disclosures, General Assembly member demographics, and legislative votes and analysis including the new redistricting plan. So, you can check how redistricting affects you by going to https://www.vpap.org/redistricting.