Virginia voters by a narrow margin passed a referendum allowing congressional districts to be gerrymandered in a manner that heavily favors Democrats, as a counter to Republican-skewed gerrymandering in other states that was encouraged by President Donald Trump. However, the Virginia Supreme Court could still rule the redistricting unconstitutional, and even if it stands, questions remain as to what the long-term consequences will be.
Virginia Tech political communications expert Cayce Myers shared his post-election analysis.
“Politically, this was a win for Democrats, but it came at a price for Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who campaigned in 2025 on being bipartisan and more moderate. Yet the outcome of the referendum also signals how many Virginians are politically resistant to President Trump and further signals a potential Democratic midterm victory for the House of Representatives in November. If this congressional map is put in place, it also means that several incumbent candidates will have to decide where and if they are running in this year’s elections,” Myers said.
“The money that funded this election portends something bigger about the cost and impact of the 2026 midterms. Reportedly, just under $100 million was raised, with most of it coming from 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups that are not required to report their donors,” he said.
“Going forward, the Virginia referendum is not the end of redrawn gerrymandered districts in 2026. There is the potential for other states to follow suit, as mid-cycle redistricting has become a national issue put forth by both Republicans and Democrats,” Myers said. “The U.S. Supreme Court’s upcoming decision on the Voting Rights Act, Section 2, could have a major impact on other congressional majority-minority districts with Democratic incumbents. Republican states in the southeast could redraw those districts to eliminate Democratic seats. Of course, timing is at issue here, as the 2026 midterms are quickly approaching.”
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