Deer management in western Virginia has been about the same for the past few decades and remains two very different deer management situations.
First, deer herds on private lands over most of western Virginia have been fairly stable over the past two-plus decades (with the exception of Alleghany, Bath, and Highland counties). Relatively stable deer herds are expected on private lands west of the Blue Ridge. If there is a change, hopefully it will be a slight decline.
Second, with the obvious exception of CWD in the northern Shenandoah Valley and the New River Valley areas, the biggest challenge in deer management in western Virginia over the past 20 to 30 years has been, and continues to be, the public land deer management situation.
The question is what the final months of 2024 will point down the deer forecast.
Over the past 25 plus years there has been an approximately 40% decline in the number of deer hunters on western public lands (primarily National Forest) and a corresponding 66% decline in the deer kill. To address this decline, the number of either-sex deer hunting days on western public lands has been reduced significantly over the past decade or more.
These changes have been successful in reducing the female deer kill. While we’ve reduced female harvest on public lands, the western public land deer population has not and is not expected to recover to past deer population levels unless there is a significant change/major improvement in deer habitat conditions. HD does not traditionally play a major role in deer management west of the Blue Ridge but recent summers suggest that could change with an increasingly warmer, drier climate.
As noted at the beginning of this forecast article, CWD is a big issue in the Northern Mountains deer management programs. In every county in the Shenandoah Valley, with the exception of Rockbridge, DWR is trying to reduce deer herds. Conversely, in the three Alleghany Highland counties (Alleghany, Bath, and Highland), DWR is trying to maintain moderate to high population levels (orange). Approximately two decades ago, all three of these counties exhibited a significant decline in deer populations. Since that time, regulations have been made more conservative and deer populations have stabilized and/or increased. Alleghany County finally met the moderate to high objective this past season. Higher deer populations are desired and tolerated in the Alleghany Highlands because there are fewer people and not a lot of deer-human conflicts.
As stated earlier, we had a big HD outbreak in the Shenandoah Valley last year, but deer harvest numbers were similar to previous years at the county level. This leaves me wondering if the outbreak wasn’t as bad as originally perceived, or if the area impacted was so small that it didn’t really impact the county totals so much. I don’t expect a big decline (if any) in deer numbers at the region or county level, but locally, some hunters may not see as many deer as in previous years. Keep in mind, though, that the current objective in Rockingham and Augusta Counties is to decrease deer numbers, so the outbreak may have helped us in that regard. We shall see after this upcoming season.
The Southern Mountains are best described by three different deer management approaches. In nearly all the counties in the New River Valley area, DWR is trying to reduce deer populations. In far southwest, DWR is trying to maintain current/stable deer populations, and lastly, in Buchanan County DWR is still trying to increase deer populations. These efforts have been and continue to be successful.
So what is the forecast for the fall 2024 deer season? Unless there is a significant HD event, deer populations and the deer kill across most of the state should be stable to increasing. A major increase or decrease in the statewide deer kill total is not expected. Over the past 30 years, the statewide annual deer kill has been relatively stable and ranged from about 179,000 to 259,000 and averaged about 212,000.
We’ve had two mild winters in a row, so we ought to see plenty of healthy and productive animals this coming season, especially in those areas with above-average acorn production. Deer should be on a higher nutritional plane heading into the growing season, where bucks can really pack on body mass and grow antlers and does can pump out plenty of highly nutritious milk for their fawns. Fawns that start their lives on a higher nutritional plane tend to be more productive later in life than those who start out in poorer shape. We likely had one heck of a cohort of buck fawns from last summer after the big mast crop of fall 2022, so we might see an uptick in yearling six- and eight-pointers this fall.
Past experience indicates that the ups and downs in annual deer kill totals are in part attributable to mast (acorns, mostly) conditions and/or HD outbreaks. In years of poor mast crops, the deer kill typically goes up. In years of good mast crops, the deer kill typically goes down. The 2022 season had a big acorn crop and a dip in deer harvest. Last year’s mast crop wasn’t as great, and the harvest went up. I can’t forecast the acorn crop, so make sure you get out there and get your scouting done this summer.
Justin Folks, Virginia Department of Wildlife Service deer project leader