Del. Jason Ballard
Virginia General Assembly
A new report from the United States Department of Energy (DOE) has corroborated what Republicans in the Virginia General Assembly have been saying for years: Virginia either clears the way for new natural gas, nuclear, or other reliable power sources, or the lights will inevitably go out. This is the third warning to Virginia lawmakers in recent months, and the first from the DOE. The outlook on energy production in the Commonwealth is not good. We have now been warned that demand exceeds capacity by the Virginia Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission, PJM Interconnection, and now, the U.S. DOE.
DOE ran hour-by-hour simulations across 12 years of weather and demand data, using actual power plant retirement schedules to include those mandated by the Virginia Clean Economy Act. The short version is this: PJM Interconnection will fail reliability requirements by the year 2030. The forecast shows an estimated 607 hours per year of potential blackouts under current plans. Even in the best case scenario – keeping baseload requirements online and building every proposed renewable energy project – it still will not be enough. This scenario leads to nearly 100 hours per year of potential blackouts on the PJM electrical grid. The report also estimates the amount of Net Unserved Energy (NUSE), which is the total megawatt-hours of demand that would go unmet, at enough to power 80,000 homes per year.
Europe is already seeing the results of rushing to electrify while shutting down generation in the name of “green energy.” In the Netherlands, power has already begun to be rationed. This new report makes clear that there will be no new power to buy when Virginia runs out. The entire PJM Interconnection grid is short.
We have seen the initial warning signs from this problem already. During the brutal heat Virginia experienced in June, the PJM grid issued multiple emergency alerts – including Maximum Generation Emergency and EEA-1 status – the last line before rolling blackouts. Mandatory demand response was activated, and large industrial users were paid to shut down just to keep the grid from collapsing. Congested lines serving large areas were so overloaded that one fault – caused by a squirrel – could have caused significant blackouts. This caused spot prices to spike past $3,000 per megawatt-hour in parts of Virginia, when on a normal day, that same price would be under $200. We have two options to address this issue – build more electrical generation based upon tried and true technology or go dark.
In better energy-related news, I am very pleased that Appalachian Power (APCo) has filed an application with the State Corporation Commission to securitize assets, which include costs related to storm recovery and balances on two coal-fired power plants. I worked hard with my colleagues in the General Assembly to pass my “APCo Rate Reduction Act” (HB 2621) in the 2025 legislative session, which allows APCo to undergo this process – in addition to other cost-saving and accountability measures – that work to reduce the average electric bill. Residents of the 42nd House District and across APCo’s service territory made their voices heard loud and clear when members of the General Assembly went to Richmond this January: out of control electric bills were unacceptable and unsustainable. I am thankful to see my legislation begin to work as intended.
As the delegate representing the 42nd House District in the Virginia General Assembly, your concerns are my greatest priority. If ever I may be of assistance to you and your family, please do not hesitate to reach out to me at DelJBallard@House.Virginia.Gov. You can also follow me on Twitter @JasonBallardVA or like my Facebook page, Jason Ballard for Delegate, to keep up to date with what I am doing in Richmond and in our community on your behalf.
